Showing posts with label Football Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football Picks. Show all posts

Monday, January 3, 2011

Funny Story: The Giants Beat The Seahawks This Year. By 34 Points. In Seattle.

I suppose I ought to start this by saying I don't believe the NFL should forsake its divisional breakdown. Divisions are necessary for creating a structure that enables an easy schedule rotation and fosters rivalries and fan interest. Also, I haven't done the math, but I'm fairly certain the odds of one team beating another on the road by 34 points, and then winning 43% more games during the course of that season, staying home while the pounded 7-9 division champ takes aim at a Super Bowl is pretty close to about a bajillion to one.

Oh, but that's why they play the games. Or at least that's why the Rams and Seahawks did whatever it was they did Sunday night to send at least one atrocious team to the playoffs.

Yes, some of you out there might have noticed that I'm a teentsy bit bitter about how the 2010 New York Giants season wound up, and before I continue I will acknowledge that the Giants had three chances to seal a playoff berth and were unable to do so. But let's be real. The Giants finished 10-6 this season, which, while hardly spectacular, is usually more than enough to get a team into the annual postseason tournament. And failing that, I think it's fairly plain to see that the Giants are better than the Seahawks.

The 7-9 NFC West "Champion" Seahawks.

Lest I put too much focus on the fact that, even with Seattle being a markedly difficult place to play the Giants absolutely beat the living shit out of the Seahawks earlier this season, let's remind ourselves that the Seahawks are 7-9. They lost more often than they won this season and yet somehow are actually in the playoffs. In fact, and this is where it gets fun, the only way Seattle can go down in the books as having finished the 2010 NFL season with a winning record is by winning the Super Bowl.

Call me a skeptic, but I don't see that happening.

Still, I don't want to give you all the impression that I'm crying foul over what has befallen my beloved G-Men, nor am I taking it as an opportunity to blindly throw arrows at people for my own amusement. Apparently, neither are the people in charge, either. I accept the fate of a team that looked like world beaters with roughly two games and eight minutes remaining in its regular season. One that still had its fate in its own hands despite an absolutely spectacular meltdown only to lay an egg in Green Bay in Week 16. One that could have still made it courtesy of an absolutely brilliant effort by a Chicago Bears defense were it not for the astonishing ineptitude of Chicago's offense Sunday. At this moment I will point to the Bears having a 3-0 lead in the third quarter and an interception returned to the Green Bay 15 yardline, which the Jay Cutler company somehow managed to turn into zero points.

I accept all of this. Because sometimes a team just has to take responsibility when it had the chance to leave its fate up to itself rather than chance.

But goddamnit it's frustrating to see the Seahawks in the playoffs when the Giants beat them in their own building by 34 points and won three more games. Like crazy frustrating. Unfortunately, those are just the breaks of the NFL sometimes. Those are the rules. Fair is fair. Besides, we're all a little better off when a stellar quarterback like Charlie Whitehurst gets to start in the playoffs, right? Yes, I thought so.

There are a few positives to all of this however -- or at least I'm trying to convince myself of that. For one, I can now watch the NFL playoffs free from the fear that I might suffer some tremendously horrifying heart attack, which, let's be honest, is always possible when the Giants are involved. Another positive is that I somehow went 8-8-0 last week in my football picks, meaning I finished the season with a winning mark of 127-120-10. What we can assume from that is, well, that I miscounted my games once because that adds up to 257 and there are only 256 games in an NFL season. In the interests of fairness, we're going to assume that I gave myself an extra win, meaning I correctly predicted 126 of the NFL's 256 games against the spread. I was correct a whopping 49.2% of the time. Not anywhere close to statistically significant either way, nor large enough for me to feel comfortable ever trying to make my living betting on football.

Hot damn Vegas is good.

In addition, the following bizarre statistical anomalies this year have reassured me that it was just a strange year, which we'll all agree to forget ever happened come February 7th.
-- The Giants and Buccaneers both finished 10-6 and did not make the playoffs while the 7-9 Seahawks did.
-- The Seahawks went 3-7 in their last 10 games.
-- The San Diego Chargers had the No. 1 ranked offense and defense in the League and did not make the playoffs. This can only partially be explained by the fact that nine punts were blocked in the NFL this season, and the Chargers gave up five of them.
-- The only team in the NFL to go undefeated in its division was, you guessed it, the Oakland Raiders. They did not make the playoffs.

Also, the final positive is that with the regular season over I can now know for sure just who the Giants will be visiting next season so I can start to plan potential trips to see a few new stadiums. This, of course, assumes there will be a season next year, and commissioner Roger Goodell came out today to say "Goddamnit, there will be." As it stands, I've had the Giants' 2011 visits to New England and San Francisco pegged as potential stops for some time, but the news that New York will also be visiting New Orleans and Arizona in addition to their divisional foes is intriguing. I won't know when, exactly, those games will be happening until April, but consider them all marked as potential destinations. And if you happen to live in any of those destinations, or are interested in traveling with me to them, well, we'll be talking. It's the least I can do to distract myself from the fact that I won't really care who wins any football game for the rest of the season. Well, except for the fact that I'll be rooting for whomever winds up playing the Eagles. In this case, the Packers.

Odd as that may be, I can at least respect the tradition of Green Bay and the fact that they aren't an annual rival of the Giants. Plus Lambeau Field is kind of awesome, so the Pack wins points for that.

I'll give you a full rundown of who is going to win this weekend and the rest of the playoffs later this week, when I've had the time to think about it analytically, but in closing, I'll give you a sneak peak of just what we'll be watching when Super Bowl XLV kicks off on February 6th.

Yep. You guessed it. Seattle vs. Kansas City for all the marbles.

Let's face it. It's the matchup we all wanted to begin with.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

NFL Picks Weeks Seventeen: In Which I Look Back on 2010

I'm not entirely sure how I did it, but after taking a few deep breaths and looking back, well, I'm not sure how I managed to come up with a nickname for each week of football picks that started with the phrase "In Which". Damn I'm good. It should be noted of course that this is one of the few that makes sense, and given that we're approximately 23 hours away from the dawn of 2011, well, it seems appropriate that I spent one last day checking out a brand new team I had never seen before. Granted, that this one team was the New York Islanders who don't play nearly as far from my home as most other new teams I've seen makes it less impressive, but if you understood the trials and tribulations that Debs Francisco and I undertook in our public transportation adventure to Uniondale, N.Y. and back, you'd understand why it was far more difficult than going to, say, Indianapolis.

Getting out to an Islanders game is, in fact, not even the least bit easy. Each leg of the trip from door to door took roughly two hours and 40 minutes and required going in the wrong direction at least once. Once there, however, Debs and I were not disappointed. Not only did we have fantastic seats, but, well, it was an awful lot of fun for a game I had no real vested interest in. While the Islanders won in a fourth-round shootout, with both goalies Marc-Andre Fleury and Rick DiPietro standing on their heads the entire time, the real news of the night was that Sidney Crosby's 25-game scoring streak came to an end at long last. It's always fun to see a little bit of history.

I will say, however, the Islanders' postgame celebration was a bit much.

I've been told Nassau Coliseum is one of the more antiquated and awful arenas in all of sports, and I won't lie and tell you it isn't, but the atmosphere was tremendous last night, the setting intimate and fun, and the experience generally pretty enjoyable, even if the concourses felt like you were in a bowling alley from the 1970s. In many ways it felt like a Fenway Park for hockey, but without the charm. Many amusing things happened along the way and at some point I will have a full report ready for everyone, but for the time being, my trip to Nassau Coliseum, and my venture of the 37th different team I've seen in the flesh, is a nice capper to my year.

And what a year it was.

To really give you all the full treatment on 2010, it seems appropriate to do one of those ridiculous lists where I put in perspective just how many different teams I've seen, stadiums I've been to, cities I've visited and, what the hell, plane rides I've been on. Why the hell not? Here it goes.

2010 In Review

-- I saw 7 new professional sports teams (Philadelphia Flyers, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Twins, New York Islanders)
-- I saw 9 new stadiums both college and professional (Wachovia Center, Turner Field, Camden Yards, Dodger Stadium, New Meadowlands Stadium, Lucas Oil Stadium, Target Field, TCF Bank Stadium, Nassau Coliseum)
-- I saw sporting events in 16 total venues (Giants Stadium, Wachovia Center, Prudential Center, Citi Field, Turner Field, Camden Yards, AT&T Park, Dodger Stadium, New Meadowlands Stadium, TD Garden, Lucas Oil Stadium, Target Field, TCF Bank Stadium, Madison Square Garden, Wrigley Field, Nassau Coliseum)
-- I visited 20 different cities (Philadelphia, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, Tzfat, Eilat, Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington D.C., San Diego, Los Angeles, Portland, San Francisco, Sonoma, San Luis Obispo, Boston, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Buffalo, Chicago)
-- I spent time in 2 countries (United States, Israel)
-- I flew on a plane 20 different times.
-- I stayed in 13 different hotels, some of them amazing, some of them horrendously awful.
-- I passed through 14 different airports.
-- I attended 2 weddings.
-- I delivered 1 Best Man Speech.
-- I had 1 sibling get married.
-- I ate at 2 different In-N-Out Burgers.
-- I had 4 slices of Giordano's stuffed pizza.
-- I saw 1 football game in a baseball stadium.
-- I won 0 fantasy leagues.
-- I wrote 141 entries in this space.
-- I got 1 new job.
-- I traveled 2 times for work.
-- I started 1 tedious, boring and insignificant blog.

Busy, huh? Yes, I thought so, too. Don't worry though. It's almost over. 2011 is almost here and with that there will be a new 12 months filled with frantically planned trips to sports venues, more weddings, more plane flights, more general exhaustion and probably about four new page views at this blog by someone other than me. Can't wait.

To close 2010 out, here, for the final time this regular season, are your sure to be wrong football picks.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 119-112-10

NY Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON
ATLANTA (-15) over Carolina
Pittsburgh (-6) over CLEVELAND
Minnesota (+3) over DETROIT
Oakland (+4) over KANSAS CITY
Miami (+5) over NEW ENGLAND
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Tampa Bay
NY JETS (even) over Buffalo
BALTIMORE (-10) over Cincinnati
San Diego (-4) over DENVER
Chicago (+10) over GREEN BAY
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Tennessee
Dallas (even) over PHILADELPHIA
SAN FRANCISCO (-7) over Arizona
Jacksonville (-3) over HOUSTON
St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE***

***If it were possible for both teams to lose this game, I would pick that result.

That's it for me. Happy New Year, everyone. Bring on 2011.

Friday, October 15, 2010

NFL Picks Week Six: In Which I Mostly Talk Hockey

As you've all no-doubt noticed, hockey season is underway, and that means any of you who see me socially will probably seeing a lot less of me because I'll be busy churning out exciting stories like this one. I hope you're able to handle it. One of those days in which I will not be in the office, however, is tonight, and I am celebrating the occasion in the only way I possibly know how.

I'm going to a hockey game.

Yes, it seems like an odd choice, but I do enjoy seeing them in person once in a while, particularly since my Devils actually got off the shnide and won a game on Wednesday. Hopefully that'll be the release that gets the team moving, and I suppose I'll be finding out tonight when I take my mother to see the glory that is the Prudential Center. Tonight's foe will be the Colorado Avalanche, which almost certainly will stir up angry memories in me of the 2001 Stanley Cup Finals, but what can you do? More than anything, I'm just happy to get out to my first hockey game of the year, even if it isn't a new or exciting arena.

Sometimes you go with what you're comfortable with. I'll get to those new buildings eventually.

Now, I know going to this game will cause me to miss the first half of Game One of the ALCS, but I'm prepared to except this eventuality as the cost of seeing one team I care about immeasurably as opposed to two teams I'm highly ambivalent about. Besides, I'll still catch the back end of it, and while I'll be watching both the ALCS and the NLCS, where the Giants will be taking on the Fighting Satans, most of the next 48 hours really just involve counting down the minutes until I get to watch football.

Don't worry, though. When rooting for the San Francisco Gigantes, I will have the best charm anyone could need at my side courtesy of one Stephanie Bowen.

As for football, and those other Giants -- you know, my Giants -- I'm reaching the point where one needs to both be excited and yet temper their expectations. They've looked good the past two weeks and last Sunday's solid whipping of the highly touted Texans has got people talking about that No. 1-ranked defense. I enjoy the good feelings, but maybe they're talking a little too much. Don't get me wrong. I like how Big Blue is playing and a strong defense is the backbone of nearly any championship team, but when even Adam Schefter is talking about the Super Bowl potential of New York's defense, the idea is clearly no longer held to just the minds of irrational and hyper excessive fans.

But I get antsy.

So, in the interests of my own sanity, can we wait until we're past, you know, Week Six of a 17-week season before we start bouncing around all the Super Bowl talk? Pretty please? My anxiety issues depend on us all consuming a dose of reality until at least Thanksgiving. Then maybe we'll chat, but until then, lets keeping assuming the Giants are underdogs.

And speaking of underdogs, let's do some picking.
Last Week: 8-6-0
Season: 36-36-4 (Back to .500!)

NY GIANTS (-10) over Detroit
CHICAGO (-7) over Seattle
GREEN BAY (even) over Miami
San Diego (-9) over ST. LOUIS
Baltimore (+3) over NEW ENGLAND
Atlanta (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
New Orleans (-5) over TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON (-5) over Kansas City
NY Jets (-3) over DENVER
Oakland (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO
MINNESOTA (-2) over Dallas
Indianapolis (-4) over WASHINGTON
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Alright, I'm spent, kids. And off to the hockey game. Have a good weekend, everybody.

Friday, September 24, 2010

NFL Picks Week Three: In Which I Actually Watch the Giants On TV

Yes, it's true. This weekend is a slight change of pace from my apparently typical tradition of actually going to see the Giants play in person. I should note that prior to this season, that was, in fact, not usual at all. In fact, last season when I saw the Giants at home, in Kansas City and in Washington was a marked change from having simply watched them on TV every week for the past 18 years. The fact that I actually went to the new Meadowlands Stadium to open up this season and flew out to Indianapolis after a disastrous day of airport shenanigans was even more unusual.

And while none of you are probably going to watch what is actually the biggest football game of the weekend, I'm strangely looking forward to watching on the TV since football, really, is better presented that way, and it won't involve the stress of shlepping around public transit and dealing with arcane airport security rules. I am wary however because, as some people may have noticed, this week the Giants play one team that provides them an extremely bizarre kryptonite when they play once every four years.

Oh, the scourge that is the Tennessee Titans.

I ought to mention that I don't really dislike the Titans. I enjoy Jeff Fisher, a solid ground game and tough, physical defense, and those aspects have been a part of the Titans' game plan for more than a decade now. However, the two times the Giants have played the Titans in their current incarnation in the Volunteer State have ended in heart breaking disaster. I remember where I was, what I said and what I was thinking both times the Titans had a scrambling intangibles-full quarterback lead an improbable comeback to dash the best-laid plans of Big Blue.

Don't believe me? Let's take a look at the evidence.

Case one happened on December 1, 2002, when the Giants, gunning to improve their place in the standings ahead of the postseason, carried a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter, only to see it disappear on a touchdown pass from Steve McNair to Frank Wychek and a game-tying two-point conversion with nine seconds left. Tennessee eventually pulled out a 35-32 victory with a field goal in overtime. Perhaps the only thing more remarkable than the loss is the fact that it wound up not being the biggest gut-punch Giants fans would suffer that season.

Case two, by far the more devastating, happened on November 26, 2006, when the Giants took perhaps the most brutal loss in a 2-6 stretch that some them drop from 6-2 and a Super Bowl contender, to 8-8 and relying on a stunning 200-yard performance by Tiki Barber in the season finale against Washington to earn a wild card berth. Big Blue seemed fully in control until a 21-point lead evaporated with 10 minutes left, as an unnecessary heave by a young Eli was picked off by the pre-lost soul Pac-Man Jones, turning the tide. The climax of all of this, of course, was the two pronged decision of Mathias Kiwanuka to inexplicably let Vince Young go when he had him sacked on fourth down, and Manning's second unnecessary heave that was picked off in the final minute, leading to a game-winning field goal that handed Tennessee a 24-21 win.



Mercy. I can't even begin to imagine what kind of pain is in store this time. In the end I'm hoping It'll be a more positive result, or at least not as disappointing as it was last night when I found out the Giants have a 5,000 square foot museum in the new stadium that was never publicized until after I already plopped down $150 to see them beat up Carolina in the season opener and left without walking around. Of course, at least that situation is, one day, fixable. My other major disappointment this week came when the Twins clinched their division about two weeks earlier than I wanted them to, as I was hoping the White Sox would keep it close enough for me to witness the celebration when I'm at Target Field on Oct. 1.

Biggest non-shock of the week? The Mets were finally eliminated from postseason contention. A stunner.

Enough of my own depression. On with the picks.

Last week: 7-7-2
Season: 13-15-4

NY GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee
San Francisco (-3) over KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA (-11) over Detroit
NEW ENGLAND (-15) over Buffalo
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Atlanta
Pittsburgh (-3) over TAMPA BAY
CAROLINA (+4) over Cincinnati
BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland
Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Washington
JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Philadelphia
Indianapolis (-6) over DENVER
ARIZONA (-5) over Oakland
San Diego (-6) over SEATTLE
NY Jets (+2) over MIAMI
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO

Are you comfortable with all those picks? Because I sure ain't. But it means a whole lot of nothing. The only thing that really matters is getting the chance to watch that Redskins-Rams blockbuster.

Who doesn't want to see those Goliaths?

Sunday, January 24, 2010

It's Championship Sunday


As the Jets and Colts battle for AFC Supremacy, and the Saints and Vikings do likewise in the NFC, it is important that we remember and honor something that football simply wouldn't be the same without.

That's right.

Today is the 75th anniversary of the beer can. Few things have changed humanity quite so profoundly.

Oh, and I'm taking the Jets and the Saints. Everyone enjoy your football.